Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Bessent's Interest Rate Bet Could Be a Big Loser

Bloomberg reports:

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has advocated a different approach: shifting issuance of government debt toward short-term bills. Recently the average maturity of outstanding Treasury securities was about 71 months, a bit above the 64-month average since 2000. Bessent thinks the government can save money by borrowing at shorter maturities instead of locking in today’s high rates, which he expects to decline in the future.
If pursued aggressively, Bessent’s idea would signal a significant departure from the US practice of “regular and predictable” debt management. For more than 40 years, the Treasury has sought to convince investors that it won’t trade against them — that its genuine financing needs, rather than opportunism, drives the composition of its debt issuance. This has been viewed as the best way to minimize borrowing costs overall, across time and maturities.
When you haven't balance the budget since Fiscal Year 1957. You have big problems.