Thursday, November 08, 2018

ECONOMICS BLUNT A BLUE WAVE IN 2018 ELECTIONS, BUT DANGER SIGNS MOUNT FOR GOP

New Geography reports:
If you are betting on the future, it gets ever more dubious for the GOP -- even Texas looks wobbly. If they are losing or barely winning affluent suburbs amidst a thriving economy, this is very bad news. Every year GOP voters die, and new predominantly Democratic ones replace them -- not only in deep-blue areas but more contestable ones like California’s Orange County, inner-ring Houston and Northside Dallas.

This all suggests that, even in a strong economy, the Democrats enjoy significant long-term demographic advantages in coming elections. Even strong economic gains for low-income workers has not (to the consternation of Republicans) eroded Latinos and African-Americans affinity for the Democrats. Both groups went overwhelmingly blue this year.

Demographic change has not advanced far enough yet in Georgia and Florida to enable the dynamic African-American candidates Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum to prevail in their gubernatorial races.
An article well worth your time.