Sunday, December 18, 2016

Matt Yglesias' Failed Predictions and Violent Rhetoric . Is GE Happy to Be Associated With Vox ? The Great Moments of One of Obama's Approved Mouthpieces.


He's one of Obama's official approved mouthpieces who gets exclusive interviews with Obama himself. He's GE linked Matt Yglesias. Lately, he's been kind of wrong and unhappy. The day before the election Matt said:
The truth, however, is that by almost all accounts Hillary Clinton is leading in the polls and has been leading for essentially the entire campaign. That’s why all major election forecasters say that she is more likely than not to win. So the search for doubt has settled on Nate Silver’s forecast, an outlier among poll aggregators, that pegs Clinton as “only” a 65 percent favorite rather than the 85 percent or more she is favored by in other systems.

But even if you buy Silver’s main modeling assumptions (and I largely do), there’s considerable evidence outside the realm of things captured by poll aggregators that leads me to believe that if the polls are wrong, they are more likely to be underestimating Clinton’s support than overstating it.
Underestimating Clinton's support! Notice the tweet down below. Matt makes another prediction!



You can't say Matt Yglesias isn't a good at what he does. Very good.