Tuesday, November 08, 2016

This insanely accurate model is still predicting a Trump victory

The New York Post reports:
It’s not just the presidency that’s at stake in the election — but also bragging rights for two prognosticators that are almost always right.

This year, one of them is absolutely certain Donald Trump will be living in the White House, while the other is just as sure that Hillary Clinton can’t lose.

Moody’s Analytics, which has picked the next president every year since 1980, says Clinton will make history as the first female chief executive, trouncing Trump with 332 electoral votes.

That runs in sharp contrast to a model created by Helmut Norpoth, a political-science professor at Stony Brook University, that’s predicting Trump will be running the country.

Norpoth is sticking by the results of his model — which has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1912, with the exception of 2000 — despite most polls showing Clinton ahead by at least 3 percentage points.

“If [Clinton] was leading by 10 or 20 points, I would say this is not going to be my year, but I don’t see it,” he told The Post. “It’s so close. It’s certainly do-able [for him], even when you look at the polls.”

Lee Miringoff, director of Marist College’s Institute for Public Opinion, said Norpoth will “certainly have bragging rights if he’s right,” since just about everyone else is calling the race for Clinton.
Time will tell.