IBD/TIPP's final numbers put Trump up by 1.6 points in a four-way race. As of 2 a.m. Wednesday morning, Trump was up by about 1 point in the popular vote. (The actual vote outcome will likely change as votes continue to be counted over the next several weeks.)No word yet on this story from Larry Sabato.
Not one other national poll had Trump winning in four-way polls. In fact, they all had Clinton winning by 3 or more points. For the entire run of the IBD/TIPP poll, we showed the race as being far tighter than other polls. This isn't a fluke. This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right.
The Los Angeles Times, which had employed a panel of people who were queried about their choice (and which had been ridiculed throughout the election) showed Trump up in a two-way race by 3 points.
In the final poll, Raghavan Mayur, president of IBD's polling partner Technometrica Market Intelligence, said he saw more enthusiasm for Republicans and independents. He said Republican turnout would equal Democratic turnout, despite the Democratic party's registration advantage. That appears to be the case. He said independents were breaking for Trump. That also appears to be the case.
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
Posted by Steve Bartin at 2:45 AM