Thursday, November 10, 2016

House: A Few Bright Spots for Democrats, but Mostly Disappointment

Cook Political Report reports:
It's possible 2016 will set the record for the lowest number of "crossover" districts -- places that split their tickets between the top of the ticket and the congressional ballot. The record low was 26 in 2012, when only 17 Republicans carried Obama districts and 9 Democrats carried Romney districts. Today, we know of 11 Republicans in Clinton districts and 8 Democrats in Trump districts. There will be several more as we continue crunching the data.

What that means, however, is that Republicans won't have all that much exposure heading into 2018. In 2016, Democrats needed 30 seats for a majority and there were 29 Republican-held seats Obama had carried. In 2018, however, Democrats will need 23 or 24 seats for a majority and only 11 to 15 Republicans will be sitting in Clinton-carried seats. That's not quite as dismal a 2018 landscape for Democrats as the Senate, but it's still challenging.
The next one.