How did political science actually do? Keep in mind that the subfield of political science that focuses on forecasting American presidential elections is very small, even if somewhat more visible than most. Our journals and books are largely focused on explanation, description, and the testing of hypotheses, rather than the prediction of future events.An article , well worth your time.
But if you want to see what political science election forecasters came up with, look here. The predictions cover a pretty wide range of outcomes, with some seeing Trump winning and others expecting a Clinton win. But average them and you get Trump winning 49.9 percent of the two-party vote. The vote so far has him at 49.6 percent. That's pretty impressive, and far closer than polling-based models came.
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Posted by Steve Bartin at 3:26 PM