Hillary Clinton, Underdog. Even after Philadelphia, the momentum of the race to the White House points in Trump’s direction.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

After what even critics said was a highly effective Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton appears to have emerged as . . . the underdog.

Conventional wisdom has long held that Mrs. Clinton will capture the White House in November, regardless of the challenges her candidacy faces. With three months to go, that calculus looks shaky. The 2016 election is trending toward Donald Trump.

Yes, the race has been fluid and will likely remain so. Mrs. Clinton might get a solid convention bounce. But even in the best-case scenario, it seems unlikely to surpass Mr. Trump’s own bounce—five to six points in some polls, which is greater than President Obama’s in 2008 or 2012. The Republican’s boost is largely the result of Mr. Trump’s successful speech in Cleveland. Fifty-seven percent of those watching had a “very positive” reaction, and 56% said that they were more likely to vote for him. You’d never know it from listening to the mainstream press, which condemned the speech as “dark.”


Right now the momentum points in one direction: Mr. Trump’s. The race is tied in the Real Clear Politics polling average, which represents a reversal in his fortunes of three to four points. Earlier this week, with the GOP convention still fresh, Mr. Trump had the clear advantage and edged ahead of Mrs. Clinton. As polls during the first days of the Democratic convention began to be factored in, a statistical tie emerged.

Douglas E. Schoen's got some interesting data here.