Six Months Out, the General Election Map Looks Tough for Donald Trump

The Wall Street Journal reports:

Since 1992, every Democratic nominee has won a solid chunk of 18 states and the District of Columbia, which together add up to 242 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Republicans, meanwhile, have held a solid chunk of 13 states with just 102 electoral votes.

The Cook Political Report offers a more charitable tally for where things lean right now, saying the Democrats likely have 217 safe votes to start, while the Republicans have 191. (But it’s worth noting here that George W. Bush won his two elections, in 2000 and 2004, by an average of just 20 electoral votes—absolute squeakers by any measure—while Barack Obama won his by an average of 159 electoral votes.)

So to triumph, Mr. Trump will have to alter the electoral map in historically dramatic ways. He will have to wrest away not just a few states—like Colorado, Virginia, Nevada or New Mexico—that went with Mr. Obama in both 2008 and 2012 and appear to be turning reliably blue. He will also almost certainly have to grab a couple of states—like Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin—that haven’t fallen into the R column since the 1980s.

Donald's challenge.