Monday, January 25, 2016

When Should Clinton Start To Panic About The Sanders Insurgency?

TPM reports:
In the Democratic Party, Wasserman notes in his piece that 15 percent of total delegates come from super delegates. In November, Clinton already had a 45 to one super delegate advantage over Sanders, NPR reported. Out of the 712 super delegates–individuals who are part of the party's establishment including members of Congress and party officials– Sanders had earned the support of 8 super delegates. Clinton had the backing of 359, according to a survey from the Associated Press. While super delegates aren't locked in and are always subject to change (as was the case in 2008 when Clinton had a decisive lead over then-senator Obama's super delegate count and then lost support), Clinton has a decisive lead over Sanders just a week before Iowa. Even in 2008, NPR noted that Clinton had only a three to one advantage over Obama's super delegates and many still had not made up their minds.

Moreover, the kind of party officials and party establishment types who switched their allegiances from Clinton to Obama as the primary contest dragged in 2008 may be institutionally less likely to switch their support to a self-proclaimed Democratic socialist.
The numbers behind the Democrat party establishment.