The U.S. stock market’s fate hangs on this critical number

Marketwatch reports:

The U.S. stock market faces a crucial test Tuesday after the long weekend.

After the worst 10-day start of a calendar year ever, the major stock market averages are on the cusp of the first real bear market since the financial crisis.

Bullish and bearish technicians agree on one make-or-break number as the threshold that will determine whether this latest correction will become a bear market, generally defined as a 20% decline from a previous peak.

What’s the number? The S&P 500 Index’s Aug. 25 correction closing low of 1867.61. That, technicians agree, is the support level the market must hold for the bull to continue. It’s the market’s answer to Powerball, though this time it’s winner take all.

“The support break will occur if and when the index falls below its August low of 1,867, to the nearest penny,” wrote the bearish Michael Kahn in his “Getting Technical” column in Barrons.com.

We says three closing days below 1860.