A computer just predicted this party will win the White House in 2016. Odds Favor Republicans.

Fortune reports:

Reuters built a computer model to predict which political party will win the presidency in next year’s election, and the results are in: a Republican will most likely be moving into the White House in 2017.

The data model takes into account a number of factors, most importantly the historic trend that “successor” candidates—those from the same party as the current president—are three times less likely to win, Reuters said. Given President Obama’s middling ratings, this means the Democrats are facing stiff odds in the upcoming White House battle.

The computer analysis, which uses historical averages, is probably a better standard to judge the upcoming election than polling data, at least for now. The polling data are off by an average of 8% from actual results this far from an election, although that margin of error gets smaller as election day nears. The average poll data error a week out is closer to 1.7%.

Here's more on the story:

Elections are not mysterious events subject to the whimsy of unpredictable candidates and voters. They’re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways.

Because of that, we can say, with reasonable confidence, that a Republican will be moving into the White House in 2017.

That conclusion is based on the results of a data model we created, and is primarily the result of two factors, both related to the challenges faced by “successor” candidates — candidates from the same party as the incumbent. First, a Republican will win because voters typically shy away from the party currently in power when an incumbent isn’t running. In fact, a successor candidate is three times less likely to win. Second, President Barack Obama’s approval ratings are too low to suggest a successor candidate will take the White House.

Why are we so confident, especially when opinion poll data now gives Hillary Clinton the edge over most Republican opponents? The simple answer is that we’re relying on models, not polls.

Just a reminder.