As stock market drops, so do Hillary’s chances. Economists and political forecasters say a downturn would be devastating for Democrats.

Politico reports:

Economists mostly still see decent growth the rest of this year and a jobless rate around 5 percent by the time of the 2016 election. An electoral model maintained by Moody’s suggests this kind of environment should narrowly favor a Democrat winning the White House.

But there are already signals that current forecasts for the economy could be too rosy. The rate of job creation has slowed this year to a pace closer to 200,000 per month from 300,000 late last year. The jobless rate remained stuck at 5.3 percent the past two months after a long run of steady declines. A report out on Tuesday showed a slight tick down in major market home prices, taking some of the steam out Wall Street’s recovery.

And Mark Zandi of Moody’s, who maintains the model, says a slight downgrade of economic performance would shift the electoral balance toward the GOP nominee.

“Even a modestly less positive economy than I expect come Election Day will significantly flip the election results,” Zandi said. “Instead of the Democrats winning in a squeaker, the Republicans will win big. There are a handful of big states on the cusp of voting Democrat or Republican, and a small change in the economy in those states will significantly swing the election results. The presidential election outcome is on a razor’s edge and will be determined by even a small change in the economy’s performance.”

The Democrat party odds.