Thursday, October 30, 2014

Why the polls are better than ever at predicting Senate races

The Washington Post reports:
There has been a lot of concern about the quality of the polls this cycle, and those concerns have merit. Alaska does present some real polling challenges. Colorado has been mis-polled some in recent years. The polls do sometimes have a systematic bias, and are sometimes just wrong because the race is close and polling is an imperfect science. These are all legitimate worries, even now, just one week from Election Day.

However, in worrying about the polls this year, it’s important not to lose sight of an important long-term trend: there are a lot more polls than there used to be. And that matters for predictions.
Tuesday will tell.