Stuart Rothenberg: Senate Outlook- Advantage to Republicans

Stuart Rothenberg reports:

Five Senate seats look increasingly like they will be keys to what kind of election the two parties will have this year.

The GOP looks poised to take over six Democratic seats: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. If they do that and hold all of their own, they will win Senate control for President Barack Obama’s final two years in office.

But five other seats – two of them currently held by Republicans and three by Democrats – should determine control and, if the GOP wins, the size of that party’s majority.

Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina are the Democratic-held seats most worth watching, while Kansas and Georgia are the Republican seats at risk next month. One additional state should be on your radar – New Hampshire. But if Republican Scott Brown knocks off Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in the Granite State, you can assume that a huge wave is carrying the GOP to an 8 to 10 seat net gain for the cycle.

The runoff dynamic complicates things for Democrats.

Assuming that Republicans win the five non-runoff states most likely to flip control and lose Kansas, both Louisiana and Georgia, which are expected to go to runoffs, become nationalized battles for control of the Senate.

The establishment's Stuart Rothenberg speaks.