Charlie Cook: Democrats Face Strong Headwinds in Fight to Keep Senate Majority

Charlie Cook reports:

Since March, I have been saying that Republicans had at least a 50 percent chance of retaking a Senate majority this year, and since July, I have upped that chance to 60 percent. There has been the normal ebb and flow of candidates' fortunes in many individual races since then, but the general direction of this election has remained pretty much the same. While the political environment is bad for Democrats, this is not a wave election. It is simply an election being fought on terrain that is, at the moment, highly favorable to Republicans.

With six Democratic seats up in states that Mitt Romney won by 14 points or more—coincidentally the same number of seats that the GOP must net to win a majority—this is not a fight being waged in purple competitive states. If Republicans needed to score a net gain of six seats in purple swing states, it is highly unlikely that they would be able to do so. But in this cycle, they will not need to.

The establishment's man speaks.