Nate Silver-Polls Show Path Of Least Resistance To GOP Majority

538 reports:

Pollsters are picking up the pace after a slow start in this midterm election season. Sunday featured the release of a trio of NBC News/Marist polls of the Senate races in Arkansas, Kentucky and Colorado, while the online polling firm YouGov released polls of almost every Senate race in conjunction with the New York Times and CBS News.

The bottom line is not much has changed. The FiveThirtyEight forecast model gives Republicans a 65.1 percent chance of winning the Senate with the new polling added, similar to the 63.5 percent chance that our previous forecast gave them on Friday.

But the path to a Republican majority is becoming a little clearer — and the problem for Democrats is that it runs through six deeply red states.

The guru speaks.