Monday, July 14, 2014

Think the Economy Can Save Democrats? It Won't :The economy might play a role in presidential politics, but its impact is near nil in the midterms.

The National Journal reports:

This month's surprisingly strong jobs report elicited fresh optimism that at long last, the economy was poised to recover its full strength. And in Washington, naturally, the question quickly became: Would Democratic candidates receive an unexpected boost from a late-in-the-election-cycle economic surge?

The short answer? Don't count on it. Even if job gains do spike—and there's plenty of reluctance to predict an accelerating recovery after years of stop-and-start growth—it's unlikely voters will feel demonstrably better about the economy in time for November. Ultimately, how voters feel about the economy and their own financial situation is what matters when they step in the polling booth—not abstract economic data.

But there's another, more surprising reason a late-developing recovery wouldn't help Democrats. A plethora of political-science research suggests the economy, except in extreme circumstances, doesn't matter much in midterm elections anyway. A boost in growth certainly wouldn't hurt, but its effect on candidacies would be indirect and minor.

This is why you'll be hearing more about "cultural issues" from Democrat party candidates this election cycle.