Wednesday, September 26, 2012

How Mitt Romney is actually defeating Barack Obama in the presidential race

The Examiner reports:
The electorate in 2010 was made up of 35 percent registered Democrats and Republicans with almost all the rest being independents. Rasmussen Reports partisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents. If we assume that Romney will win 56 percent of the independent vote to Obama's 44 percent, a conclusion that is quite reasonable given most of the polling data available, we can look at how the race turns out at varying levels of weighting of the Democrats and Republicans. Using Rasmussen's 37.6 percent Republicans to 33.3 percent Democrats, Romney would win the election with a 54.10 percent to 45.90 percent margin. Using a weighting that assumes Republicans and Democrats will be 35 percent each in the actual electorate that votes in the election, Romney would win the race 51.8 percent to 48.2 percent. If the electorate is Republicans by two percent, meaning 36 percent Republicans to 34 percent Democrats, Romney would win 50.70 percent to 49.30 percent.
You'll want to read this one.