China's census: Older

The Economist reports:

The publication of preliminary data from China’s census last year shows that an extraordinary demographic transition is under way. The population is still massive, and larger than any other country’s, at 1.34 billion. But the population is growing slower than when it was last counted, in 2000, and ageing faster. China is still likely to be the first country to grow old before it gets rich.

Three decades of the one-child policy have seen the population growth rate and the total fertility rate (the number of children an average woman can expect to have in her lifetime) fall steadily. The average annual population growth from 2001-10 was 0.57%, just over half the rate from 1991-2000.

The total fertility rate is contentious. In both 2000 and 2010 it was estimated at about 1.8%, reflecting widespread breaches of the one-child policy. It has anyway never been a universal policy. Families in the countryside were allowed a second child if the first was a girl. Ethnic minorities were allowed more. More recently, couples who are both single children themselves have been allowed more than one child.

If the rules were followed nationwide, the fertility rate would be about 1.5; some demographers believe that 1.8 is in fact an overestimate. Even if it is not, it implies that China’s work force will in a few years start declining, and the “dependency” ratio—the proportion of the population made up of the young and elderly—will start to climb.

An article well worth your time.