May House Update: GOP Gains Likely, Majority Uncertain

Sabato's Crystal Ball reports:

Like many beleaguered sports fans, as the calendar turned to 2010, Republicans across the country were conjuring up the same thought: “This is the year!” After disastrous House elections in 2006 and 2008, Republicans dropped from their high-water mark of 232 House seats—their largest total since 1949—to just 178—their lowest total in a decade and a half. This precipitous decline brought considerable frustration to the new minority party. 2010 appeared to offer the chance for historic rebirth—and in many ways it still does.

The real question of this midterm election is not whether a Republican tide is imminent, but how high it will be. From 1938 onwards, in only two of eighteen midterm elections (1998 and 2002) has the party shut out of the White House failed to gain House seats. With so many seats to defend, and dozens of them in Republican-leaning districts, Democrats have obvious, substantial disadvantages this year.