Incumbents Face Twin Furies

Charlie Cook in The National Journal:

Two strong winds are blowing through the U.S. political world, as events of the past week have made quite clear. The first is an anti-Democratic-incumbent wind, which can be felt in this year's primaries and which claimed 14-term Rep. Alan Mollohan, D-W.Va., on Tuesday; a ton of polling data reveals the power of this trend. The second is a strongly populist, anti-Washington, anti-Wall Street, and anti-incumbent wind. That's the force that produced three-term Sen. Robert Bennett's loss at the Republican state convention in Utah.

In the past, seniority and power were almost a guarantee of re-election. Now, having power and influence is a strike against incumbents. The way voters seem to view incumbents this year is that if you have real power and things are in bad shape, you are an even bigger part of the problem than you would be if you were a backbencher.

Democratic incumbents, new or old, junior or senior, who will be facing both of these winds in November should be worried. Long-serving Democratic members of Congress identified as having "gone Washington" are especially under threat, but freshman and sophomore Democrats who seized seats from the GOP in 2006 or 2008 are now seen widely as interlopers in their districts.

An article well worth your time.