Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Is Property Mall Giant General Growth Properties Having Problems?

General Growth Properties the country's second largest property mall owner is making news.Marketwatch reports:
The company's approach to financing made General Growth, which has more than 200 properties in 45 states, "more risky than its peers," says Steven Marks, managing director of the REIT group at Fitch Ratings, which rates the company's debt as "junk." While Fitch hasn't made any changes to General Growth's "stable" outlook, and doesn't believe that the REIT is another Centro in the making, Marks acknowledges that General Growth is "next on the list" after Centro, with $6 billion of debt that needs to be refinanced over the next two years.
While Marks says that risks of a bankruptcy filing are low, he also says that companies such as Centro "and potentially General Growth get into trouble when they face lots of maturities over a short period of time in a weak market."
Nobody really cared about any of this, of course, as long as the credit markets remained open and friendly -- and as long as General Growth's stock, one of the best performers of all REITs over the past five years, continued to dazzle. And dazzle it did until peaking at about $67 last March, a near-quadrupling over the previous five years.
Its shares have since fallen by half, harder than many other REITs, closing Friday at $32.86, as investors grow increasingly concerned that everything that worked in General Growth's favor, including the use of secured financing, may now work against it.
Here's a monthly chart. We wonder if a coming recession is being predicted already on that chart.