Friday, August 24, 2007

Government Cautions That Their Housing Numbers Aren't Worth Much



Marketwatch reports:
The government cautions that its housing data are subject to large sampling and other statistical errors. Large revisions are common. The standard error of 12% is so high, in fact, that the government cannot be sure in most months whether sales rose or fell.
It can take up to five months for a trend in sales to emerge. New-home sales have averaged 867,000 per month over the past five months, compared with 861,000 in the five months ending in June. The five-month sales average is now down 19% from last July's 1.07 million pace.
Home builders have piled on incentives, including offering free vacations and new cars, to sell homes and reduce inventories. Such incentives are not subtracted from the sales price reported to the government.
Sales are reported when a contract is signed, not at the closing of the sale. Home builders have reported a large increase in cancellations in recent months. Cancellations are not reflected in the government data, so the reported sales are likely overstated.
Maybe the government should get out of the business of collecting housing numbers.What good are they with the above information taken into account? Did you really believe the median is higher than 12 months ago?