Suburban Idyll

Joel Kotkin writes an important article in The Wall Street Journal. Here's an extract:

The larger trends reveal the vast majority of boomers are actually going nowhere; according to the 2000 census, less than 2% cross state lines every year. Only a small number of those who move, according to a new study from the Research Institute for Housing America, choose to go back to the city. Many more, it appears, either head in to the suburbs, or move even further out.

A study for the Mortgage Bankers Association found that downshifting boomers were just about as suburb-oriented as their parents. Eighty percent of all moves by suburbanites over 50 were . . . well . . . to another suburban home, almost eight times the number that bought in the inner city. In contrast, more than half of city-dwellers who moved headed out to suburbia.

This reflects what may be seen as a basic lifestyle orientation. Asked for their preferences, many downshifting boomers express a predilection not for sex in the city, but for neighborhoods that are safe and close to outdoor recreation. Not surprisingly, according to one study of 2000 affluent boomer homeowners, two-thirds reported they wanted to stay in the suburbs; another 14% wanted to opt for a rural life.

"Everybody in this business wants to talk about the odd person who moves downtown, but it's basically a 'man bites dog' story," says Sandy Rosenbloom, professor of urban planning and gerontology at the University of Arizona. "Most people retire in place. When they move, they don't move downtown, they move to the fringes."

Ms. Rosenbloom's observations are born out in an analysis of migration patterns of people 55-64 by my colleagues at the Praxis Strategy Group. Among the relatively few who move, the trend among this cohort has been to move away from highly urban regions like the San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles and Boston areas. Gainers have included sprawling, less-expensive places like Las Vegas, Charlotte, Phoenix and Southern California's Riverside. Some of the biggest draws, on a per capita basis, are in rural locales such as Idaho and Montana.

A good one.