Home Sales Are Much Worse Than You Thought

Business Week quotes John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, Calif.:

Relying on data without understanding the methodology can lead to wrong conclusions. For example, the Census Bureau is reporting that new home sales are only down 6% from one year ago, which we know is incorrect. For accurate new home sales estimates, see the press releases of publicly traded home builders – all of whom are reporting sales (orders) that are down 20% - 40% from one year ago. The NAHB Housing Market Index, as well as almost every industry source we contact each month, supports the fact that sales are down 20%+ from one year ago in more than 70% of the markets we track (Texas, the Carolinas, Georgia and New Mexico are some of the major exceptions).

Look at KBH,TOL,and LEN.