The Myth of the Urban Comeback

Joel Kotkin reports:

Even amidst a strong economic expansion, the most recent census data reveal a renewed migration out of our urban centers. This gives considerable lie to the notion, popularized over a decade, that cities are enjoying a historic rebound. The newest figures are troubling on two accounts. Not only are the perennial losers -- Baltimore, Philadelphia, Cleveland and Detroit -- continuing to empty out, but some of our arguably most attractive cities, like Boston, San Francisco, Minneapolis and Chicago, have lost population since 2000. Even New York, where foreign immigration has managed to counteract large scale outmigration, seems to be slowing down.

Equally troubling may be the reasons why this population shift is occurring, and how profoundly clueless most mayors and city officials around the country seem to be about addressing the problem. Almost everyone notes that skyrocketing housing prices in urban areas, particularly on the coasts, have both masked and contributed to this phenomena. Cities with the highest rates of loss of domestic migrants -- San Francisco, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and Boston -- have also enjoyed (or suffered) some of the highest rates of housing appreciation in the nation.

To some urban boosters, this appreciation alone suggests the overall vitality of cities. Academic theorists like Richard Florida claim the outmigration stems from a surge of affluent, well-educated small households -- his much vaunted "creative class" -- pushing out middle-class families and others among the less gifted. This may be partly true, particularly in some coveted neighborhoods, but overall Dr. Florida's notion seems to me a play on Yogi Berra's remark about a place being so crowded nobody goes there any more. Cities now can claim to be successful since they are losing their people.

It difficult to see how many of these cities that are hostile to single family housing are going to gain population.The irony is the MSM portrays them as "trendy" when they really are a relic of the past, representing something out of 20th century Europe.