Thursday, April 20, 2006

Yuan may topple US dollar

The Standard reports:
Jim Rogers, who joined George Soros to start the Quantum hedge fund in the 1970s, said the yuan may overtake the US dollar as the most accepted currency among the world's central banks.

The yuan may surge in years ahead and the US dollar will fall, Rogers said.

Powered by record exports and investment in manufacturing, China's economy has doubled in size in the past decade, overtaking Britain and France last year to become the fourth-largest in the world.

"If there's a currency that has the potential to replace the dollar, the only one I can see on the horizon is the [yuan]. The [yuan is] going to go much, much higher," said Rogers, 63, declining to give a forecast.

It may take decades for China to achieve reserve status for a currency that it doesn't yet allow to be held outside of the country.

The US dollar made up 66 percent of world official foreign currency holdings in 2004, according to the International Monetary Fund.

China ended its decade-old US dollar peg in July.

"The yuan isn't a reserve currency at all, let alone `the' reserve currency," Callum Henderson, said head of foreign-exchange strategy at Standard Chartered in Singapore.

"We're a very long way away."
Or maybe a gold backed currency or gold.