How Reliable Are Those Housing Numbers?

Mish reports:

Several of you have called to find out why yesterday’s Florida numbers are at the opposite end of the spectrum from the National Association of Realtor (NAR) numbers. Here’s what one analyst told me after he investigated a similar disconnect prior to this one.

NAR extrapolates. They survey 1-2% of the market and then multiply and add a “fudge” factor. He said he believes they intentionally avoid distressed markets like Miami, Naples, Vegas, Phoenix, DC, etc. There goal, as our Trade Association, is to promote the industry, not to report a comprehensive picture. If they avoid the hard hit markets, their numbers will consistently paint a much better picture than what reality is.

Amazing.You'll want to read the whole post.