At its meeting on January 31 of this year, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate another 1/4 percentage point, bringing its level to 4-1/2 percent.You'll notice that Bernanke didn't say Fed tightening is going to stop.
At that meeting, monetary policymakers also discussed the economic outlook for the next two years. The central tendency of the forecasts of members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of Federal Reserve Banks is for real GDP to increase about 3-1/2 percent in 2006 and 3 percent to 3-1/2 percent in 2007. The civilian unemployment rate is expected to finish both 2006 and 2007 at a level between 4-3/4 percent and 5 percent. Inflation, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, is predicted to be about 2 percent this year and 1-3/4 percent to 2 percent next year. While considerable uncertainty surrounds any economic forecast extending nearly two years, I am comfortable with these projections.
In the announcement following the January 31 meeting, the Federal Reserve pointed to risks that could add to inflation pressures. Among those risks is the possibility that, to an extent greater than we now anticipate, higher energy prices may pass through into the prices of non-energy goods and services or have a persistent effect on inflation expectations. Another factor bearing on the inflation outlook is that the economy now appears to be operating at a relatively high level of resource utilization. Gauging the economy's sustainable potential is difficult, and the Federal Reserve will keep a close eye on all the relevant evidence and be flexible in making those judgments. Nevertheless, the risk exists that, with aggregate demand exhibiting considerable momentum, output could overshoot its sustainable path, leading ultimately--in the absence of countervailing monetary policy action--to further upward pressure on inflation. In these circumstances, the FOMC judged that some further firming of monetary policy may be necessary, an assessment with which I concur.
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
Bernanke's Feb. 15 Statement to House Committee: Full Text
Bloomberg gives the text.Here's an extract: