Wednesday, December 21, 2005

Is It Time For Warren Buffett To Retire?

Forbes questions whether Warren's better days are past:
Warren Buffett's reign as the iron man of the investment world may be peaking. Like a great Bordeaux vintage, say the '45, even the '59 or '61, he's likely to plateau and then follow a gentle downward arc over the next decade."

I wrote that in a column for Forbes published May 20, 1996. Berkshire Hathaway (nyse: BRKA - news - people ) shares were around $38,000. Now shares are at $90,000. The annual compound rate of gain is over 9%--respectable, but no barn burner. The S&P 500 Index, which Buffett compares himself with, also compounded at 9.2%.
Anyone who's long Berkshire should read this.Here's a question to ponder how much of the value of Berkshire's stock is just because Warren is still living?