Thursday, December 08, 2005

Is the Fed Near the End of the Tightening Cycle?

Bloomberg reports:
U.S. Treasuries rose before the last auction of 10-year notes in 2005, a sign of optimism that the Federal Reserve may stop raising interest rates early next year as inflation remains in check.

The Treasury will sell $8 billion of debt at 1 p.m. New York time. The Fed will lift its target rate to 4.25 percent from 4 percent when it meets on Dec. 13, according to all 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, said on the CNBC television network that an increase to 4.5 percent on Jan. 31 will be the Fed's last move.
We doubt 4.5 percent is the end of Fed tightening.Especially,when a new Fed Chairman is coming in and has to prove how tough he is.