In Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz has inched even closer to John Fetterman. Herschel Walker is neck-and-neck with Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia, and Blake Masters has narrowed Sen. Mark Kelly’s lead in Arizona. And Republican polling shows Adam Laxalt squeezing past Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada.
Meanwhile, Republicans stuck in stubbornly tied red states are beginning to show signs of building more durable advantages. Polls now show GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Ted Budd moving ahead of their Democratic opponents in Ohio and North Carolina, respectively.
The GOP’s momentum on the Senate battlefield is consistent with national polling showing an uptick for Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, as the party holds the edge when it comes to handling most of the issues at the center of the midterm campaign — especially the economy and inflation.
And the recent polls align with the POLITICO Election Forecast, which currently rates the fight for Senate control as a “Toss Up.” Barring an upset elsewhere, if the GOP prevails in at least three of the four “Toss Up” races — Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — it will win the majority. Currently, polling averages show Republicans leading in Nevada and Wisconsin, and trailing — though narrowly — in Georgia and Pennsylvania.