Greg Gianforte’s 7 percentage point win in the Montana special election keeps a seat in Republican hands, but fundamentally represents bad news for the GOP. The basic issue, as David Wasserman breaks down for the Cook Political Report, is that for prognostication purposes you don’t just want to know who wins or loses a special election — you want to know the margin.Explainer journalism from Democrat party hack Matt Yglesias of ObamaCare prediction fame. Matty Y: the scientific expert using amazing facts to make decisions....
Montana is considerably redder than the average congressional district. According to Wasserman’s calculations, in an election where Democrats got 50 percent of the two-party vote nationwide, you’d expect them to get just 39 percent in Montana. Quist scored 44 percent, and with the Libertarian pulling in 6 percent, his share of the two-party vote is more like 46.
Friday, May 26, 2017
Matt Yglesias, Democrat Party Operative At Vox, Says: Republicans' 7-point win in last night's Montana election is great news for Democrats
Vox's Matt Yglesias reports: