American voting is increasingly driven by what I call “affordable family formation.” The GOP’s image as the family-values party is most appealing in states where voters are most likely to have families. Where it is cheap to buy a house with a yard in a neighborhood with a decent public school, you’ll find more marriages, more children, and more Republicans.Some states want a middle class and some don't.If you live in a state where it's common for houses to be priced at multiples above the national median,you know there's isn't much of a middle class.
In 2004, George W. Bush carried only 44 percent of single white females but 61 percent of married white women. Thus, he won the 25 states where white women are most likely to be married between ages 18 and 44. (California, in contrast, ranks 49th.) And he was victorious in 25 of top 26 states in the number of babies born over the average white woman’s lifetime. (California is now 45th, way down from 15th in 1990.)
In America today, many young people don’t start down the road to marriage, children, and voting Republican until they can afford a down payment on a house. So Bush carried the 20 states with the cheapest housing costs (California has the most expensive), and the 26 states with the least home price inflation since 1980 (California is 46th from the bottom).
Tuesday, May 02, 2006
Is There A New Republican Majority?
Steve Sailor reports: